Indicator Based Spatial Climate Change Vulnerability of South West Coastal Bangladesh

Aims: The aim of the study was to assess the indicator based climate change vulnerability of south west coastal Bangladesh and its future.

Place of Study: Four districts form south west coastal Bangladesh, having a total of 50 upazilas, have been selected as the study area. They are Satkhira, Khulna, Bagerhat, Pirojpur, Barguna and Patuakhali districts.

Methodology: This study has been conducted, using multivariate statistical techniques, to assess the vulnerabilities of the coastal region of Bangladesh by considering the IPCC framework of vulnerability studies. A total of 31 indicators have been selected of which 23 are socio-economic and 8 are biophysical which have been retrieved from the secondary sources. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) has been applied to derive unbiased weights of all indicators considering both present (2011) and the future (2050) climate change scenarios.

Results: This study has identified 7 principal components through PCA which has been grouped as PC1 (Demographic Vulnerability), PC2 (Economic Vulnerability), PC3 (Climatic Vulnerability), PC4 (Health Vulnerability), PC5 (Agricultural Vulnerability), PC6 (Infrastructural Vulnerability) and PC7 (Water Vulnerability). For all 7 PCA groups (termed as vulnerability profile), the number of high and medium vulnerable coastal Upazilas will be significantly changed in the future. No of highly vulnerable Upazila will increase from 0 to 1 for PC1, unchanged for PC2, increase from 0 to 1 for PC3, from 32 to 33 for PC4, from 47 to 68 for PC5, decrease from 48 to 46 for PC6, and an increase from 14 to 21 for PC7, respectively.

Conclusion: Discrete spatial maps of each profile have been generated to assess the regional variation of all vulnerability profiles across the southwest coastal region of Bangladesh. The findings of this study might be useful for policy makers and planners.