Comprehensive Assessment of Consumption Potential

This study offers a comprehensive evaluation of the consumption potential among Chinese residents, focusing on elucidating consumer demand, behavior, and trends to forecast future market developments. Conducted by Wenbo Lyu, Yingying Duan, Yudie Yang, Jia Liu, and Jiayi Zhu from the Saxo Fintech Business School at the University of Sanya, this research is part of a specialized training initiative (SYJPZQ2024045) aimed at enhancing income mechanisms.

The investigation employs multiple methodologies—including Grey Relational Analysis, Entropy Methodology, and Regression Analysis—to assess consumption potential across three primary dimensions: consumer base, consumption capacity, and consumption environment. Key findings indicate that consumption capacity—particularly national total income—emerges as the most significant determinant influencing consumer potential.

Specifically, the analysis reveals that national total income exerts the greatest influence within the domain of consumption capacity; thus positioning it as a principal driver of consumer expenditure. Utilizing the Grey prediction model GM(1,1), forecasts for consumption potential over the next seven years are generated with an average relative error of 1.25%, indicating a high degree of fit. Projected consumption expenditures for these periods are anticipated to rise steadily from 668,567.996 to 984,043.249.
This study delineates both advantages and limitations inherent in its evaluation model for assessing consumption potential. While it provides an objective and scientific foundation for decision-making through consideration of multiple factors, the accuracy and stability in predictions remain contingent upon data quality and scope of application. Consequently, the model's forecasts may diverge from actual conditions across different regions, industries, and demographic segments.